Greenhouse gas rise in state double that of U.S.

Virginia's governor-appointed Commission on Climate Change predicted Wednesday that greenhouse-gas emissions would increase 31 percent by 2025 if the state stayed on a "business-as-usual" track.

In a draft report summarizing all the ground that the commission has covered since its creation this year, the group said the man-made link to greenhouse-gas increases was "unequivocal." The commission also pointed out that as the state's population grew — and more cars hit the roads and more homes and businesses needed electricity — Virginia's greenhouse-gas emissions had increased at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the U.S.

That trend and the projected continued increase set the stage for the Gov. Timothy M. Kaine-created commission's ultimate goal: reducing greenhouse gases 30 percent by 2025, even as population and electricity use and vehicle miles traveled keep going up. The commission is chaired by Secretary of Natural Resources Preston Bryant.

As many other state leaders have done, Kaine created the commission partly in response to a lack of federal action on climate change.

Despite what some in the public might think of the topic, there's no dissension in the group about the reality of what it faces. "Gone are the days when people are debating whether the phenomenon exists, and there is significant motivation and increasing momentum at the state level to address climate change," the group's report read.

The commission's final report is due in December, and that will include the heavy lifting. So far, the group has tackled a number of its tasks, creating an inventory of the state's greenhouse-gas emissions, as well as chronicling the threat of climate change and sea-level rise to the environment and Virginia's economic infrastructure. But it hasn't laid out a strategy for reducing emissions yet.

A band of environmental groups said Wednesday that the commission's goals fell short of what was necessary to reverse emissions growth and protect against the worst effects of global warming.

The target of reducing emissions 30 percent by 2025 would essentially bring Virginia to its 2000 emissions level. Environmentalists argued that Virginia should be decreasing emissions 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 — a far deeper cut.

The report calls Virginia — its environment, cities and industries — "particularly vulnerable" to climate change. Because of the Chesapeake Bay's natural subsidence, sea level is rising faster here than in other coastal regions.

And as water temperatures rise — as Virginia Institute of Marine Science gauges show they have been for decades — sensitive species in the bay could move south or north.