Climate Change: What Should You Expect In The Future?

Climate change has been, and may always be, a controversial topic. Whether you think humankind is contributing to climate change or not, change has occurred over time. Your Cornbelt farm was covered by a massive glacier 15,000 years ago, and the climate has warmed up since then. How fast and far the climate may change is anyone’s guess, but if the current trend continues, how will Cornbelt agriculture change?

Climate change has stirred considerable debate, so a group of formidable economists and natural science researchers from Purdue University gathered to analyze the potential change on Indiana agriculture. But it does not take much to extrapolate their findings to make them applicable to the entire Cornbelt. The Purdue analysis was initially developed for presentation to Congress, and the Purdue researchers are quick to say the Cornbelt will remain the best area in the US for corn and soybean production under all likely climate scenarios. However, they identified a collection of changes in the climate that can be anticipated in coming years:

1) Increased temperature will lengthen the growing season, and increase crop productivity, but will create more heat stress on livestock.
2) Precipitation will change to create wetter winters and drier summers, with more drought-like conditions that will require drought tolerant crops, since irrigation may not be able to compensate. The Purdue team postulates that farmers may opt for crops that need shorter growing seasons to avoid seasonal weather extremes.
3) Crop diseases and insects will be more successful in over-wintering, and better crop genetics are needed to avoid those stresses in the midst of weather stress.
4) Extreme rainfall and weather events will lead to greater soil erosion and runoff which will create problems with sediment, nutrient, chemical, and pathogen loads on waterways.
5) Perennial crops, including tree crops and fruits may become more challenged in their survival in weather extremes.
6) Technology, focused on climate change, will have to keep pace.

Planting dates could become one of the more prominent changes under the scenarios studied by Purdue. The researchers concluded that soil moisture will be a controlling issue for planting dates, and by 2050, planting will be about one week earlier than it is now and two weeks earlier by 2100, using current seed technology. Crop maturity will also be marked by parallel advances. The Purdue staff also noted other research which indicated crops will not mind changes in the mean growing season temperatures and heat accumulation, but would be sensitive to temperature extremes.

Agricultural pests and beneficial insects will play an important role in the climate change. The increased plant stress from heat and moisture will lead to reduced resistance to pests with greater crop loss expected. While some pests will decline in numbers, other pests will increase if they are invasive species from warmer climates. Among those cited, Japanese beetle populations will decline, but soybean aphids, armyworms, and earworms will all increase in numbers.

Summary:
Climate change over the next 100 years is expected to be marked with wetter conditions in cold weather and hotter and drier conditions in the summer. Crops will have to respond to the weather extremes, with the help of genetic modification, but they will also have to resist a wide range of insects and pestilence expected to accompany the warmer summer weather. Researchers have also identified numerous other issues to expect, including changes in soil and water, impact on livestock, and requirements for crop genetics.